It is better to know than to hope. Even if the Ukraine democratic government wants to do a deal to end the war by ceding parts of the Donbas region to Russian takeover, what the Russians — Putin and his military advisors — will want, will include a constant threat to a sovereign Ukraine all the while preserving Putin’s hold on the Donbas.
Israel set the standard that the West has turned a blind eye to. When Israel captured Golan in the Six-Day War in 1967, they also took — and want to forever hold — the Golan Heights. Golan, as it is called, is a plateau which borders the Yarmouk River in the south, the Sea of Galilee and Hula Valley in the west, the Anti-Lebanon mountains with Mount Hermon in the north and Wadi Raqqad in the east. If the IDF military controls the high ground of Golan, they can thwart any invasion from Syria. That’s why in every peace treaty subsequent discussion and negotiation with Israel they will never give up the Golan. Never.
In the Donbas, the Ukraine military controls and should never cede Donets Ridge, including Mohyla Mechetna (the highest point on Donets). Although the majority of the Donbas region is now occupied by Russian forces, the Russians have not, and seem incapable of, capturing the Donets Ridge. Even if Trump wants Ukraine to cede all of the Donbas Region as part of a capitulation — oops, sorry, “US brokered peace deal” — the Ukraine government cannot and should not ever cede the Donets Ridge. To do so would be to incur, as Israel did prior to the Six-Day War, constant threat of a Syrian Army looking down on and wanting to recapture the Holy Land. After ’67, Syria tried, more than once, to recapture the Golan and was defeated.
Putin will know that a naïve Administration, childishly uninformed, might think they can make a blanket statement of ceding the Donbas work for peace. But when serious negotiators sit down to negotiate, Ukraine will know they cannot allow ceding the Donets Ridge. Yet the Russians will know that unless they get the Donets Ridge, their “capture” of the Donbas will forever be under threat from the higher ground. Putin is not naïve, he and his generals will know this.
There is no hope for a peaceful resolution here until the fighting is exhausted. Europe knows this, that’s why they are here trying to educate the Administration who, so far, think they can make a sweeping statement and it’ll all be done, fine, no problem. Stupid, ego-driven, people think that way. Mistaken, naïve Neville Chamberlain thought he could stall Hitler. This Administration is incapable of grasping the end-game Putin is playing. Assuaging egos, pomp and red carpets never, ever, won the diplomatic game — especially not this one with historic precedent clearly so very obvious to serious negotiators for which the Administration shows itself woefully inadequately staffed.
Peter Riva, a former resident of Amenia Union, New York, now lives in Gila, New Mexico.
