Can AI be the answer to predicting viruses?

MILLBROOK — On Route 44 heading west, just before reaching Route 82, there are some buildings nestled far back from the road, fitting in perfectly with the rustic scenery. The buildings are part of the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, and much of what goes on there is very modern and very cutting edge.

That Millbrook boasts such a renowned research center may be surprising to outsiders, but it has been a part of Millbrook’s landscape for more than 30 years. The Cary offers trails and pathways for visitors to ramble and roam, and presents many programs throughout the year, free to the public, on a variety of topics, all scientific, and often having to do with ecology.

The Cary Institute has been a leader in the study of ticks and Lyme disease, and recently Barbara Han, Cary disease ecologist, was interviewed by Jacob Ward on NBC’s News Now television program, discussing how to track a virus and how to predict outbreaks earlier than the scientific community does now.

The topic is extremely relevant to the COVID-19 pandemic. On March 9, in San Francisco, Calif., Han went into detail, explaining to Ward about contact tracking and other aspects of following a contagious disease such as the coronavirus.

It’s been pointed out that an AI (artificial intelligence) epidemiologist sounded the first warnings of the Wuhan virus that is known as COVID-19. The World Health Organization (WHO) alerted the public on Jan. 9, yet a Canadian health monitoring group reportedly sounded the alert on Dec. 31, 2019. According to Han, some AI driven algorithms can predict outbreaks more speedily than humans, who often have to go through red tape.

Han, using machine learning methods, builds models to predict where pathogens will likely come from during the next outbreak. She expects that the next major outbreak of disease will transmit from animals to humans. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) states that 75% of emerging infectious diseases, including pathogens such as COVID-19, have not been seen before, or are so mutated that they might as well never have been seen.

Han searches for where viruses come from, and tries to pinpoint which animal species pose the greatest threat to humans in the form of a virus, and how to protect people.

In an article written on March 4 for Freethink, Han said science needs to get ahead of viral outbreaks, especially if an outbreak could end up causing great human casualties or destabilizing the global economy.

Making testable and specific predictions about which species have a high risk of potentially transmitting pathogens to human is vitally important. It is also very difficult. Han used bats as an example, and said they are noted for carrying many viruses, but the sheer volume of variety can be a problem. After a certain species has been identified, a large collection of samples must be gathered, often in strange and unpleasant places, and there is always a chance that the scientists involved can become ill.

The data collected, including dietary habits, habitats, breeding cycles, litter size and life span, can be combined with cellular and molecular data to give an overall portrait of the animal without which it would be extremely hard to predict the next zoomantic disease reservoir.

Han said the models are what they are, and as her models are tested more frequently in the field, the success of the algorithms will probably improve. She feels that given the data on hand, with possibly more data made available, the models could become even more useful.

Whatever it takes, scientists, especially epidemiologists, are working non-stop to predict and prevent outbreaks before they reach a scale like the coronavirus pandemic has. They believe AI and algorithms may be the answer to the problem in the future.

 

Editor’s note: The Lakeville Journal is providing content related to the coronavirus outbreak for free as a public service to our readers. Please support local journalism by subscribing to The Lakeville Journal, The Millerton News, or TriCornerNews.com or by becoming a contributor to our membership model. Click here for more information.

Related Articles Around the Web

Latest News

Officials divided on allowing restaurants along Route 22

The Irondale district, currently known as Highway Business District III, is comprised of just six parcels along Route 22 that are currently occupied by light industrial businesses.

Photo by Nathan Miller

MILLERTON — Though the Irondale District lies just outside of the Village of Millerton, it has become the center of a divisive conversation as the Town of North East continues to review a significant overhaul of its commercial zoning code.

Irondale, officially known as the Highway Business district under current town code, is a small stretch along Route 22 south of the village that some officials and residents believe could support additional businesses, while others argue development there could undermine efforts to boost Millerton’s existing downtown.

Keep ReadingShow less
Robin Wall Kimmerer urges gratitude, reciprocity in talk at Cary Institute

Robin Wall Kimmerer inspired the audience with her grassroots initiative “Plant, Baby, Plant,” encouraging restoration, native planting and care for ecosystems.

Aly Morrissey

Robin Wall Kimmerer, the bestselling author of “Braiding Sweetgrass” and a member of the Citizen Potawatomi Nation, urged a sold-out audience at the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies on Friday, March 13, to rethink humanity’s relationship with the natural world through gratitude, reciprocity and responsibility.

Introduced by Cary Institute President Joshua Ginsberg, Kimmerer opened the evening by greeting the audience in Potawatomi, the native language of her ancestors, and grounding the talk in a practice of gratitude.

Keep ReadingShow less
google preferred source

Want more of our stories on Google? Click here to make us a Preferred Source.

Melissa Gamwell’s handmade touch

Melissa Gamwell’s handmade touch
Melissa Gamwell, hand lettering with precision and care.
Kevin Greenberg
"There is no better feeling than working through something with your own brain and your own hands." —Melissa Gamwell

In an age of automation, Melissa Gamwell is keeping the human hand alive.

The Cornwall, Connecticut-based calligrapher is practicing an art form that’s been under attack by machines for nearly 400 years, and people are noticing. For proof, look no further than the line leading to her candle-lit table at the Stissing House Craft Feast each winter. In her first year there, she scribed around 1,200 gift tags, cards, and hand drawn ornaments.

Keep ReadingShow less
Regional 7 students bring ‘The Addams Family’ to the stage

The cast of “The Addams Family” from Northwest Regional School District No. 7 with Principal Kelly Carroll from Ann Antolini Elementary School in New Hartford at Botelle Elementary in Norfolk.

Monique Jaramillo

Nearly 50 students from across the region are helping bring the delightfully macabre world of “The Addams Family” to life in Northwestern Regional School District No. 7’s upcoming production. The student cast and crew, representing the towns of Barkhamsted, Colebrook, New Hartford and Norfolk, will stage the musical March 27 and 28 at 7 p.m., with a 2 p.m. matinee on March 29 in the school’s auditorium in Winsted.

Based on the iconic characters created by Charles Addams, the musical follows Wednesday Addams, who shocks her famously eccentric family by falling in love with a perfectly “normal” young man. When his parents come to dinner at the Addams’ mansion, two very different families collide, leading to an evening of secrets, surprises and unexpected revelations about love and belonging.

Keep ReadingShow less
‘Quilts of Many Colors’ opens at Hunt Library

Garth Kobel, Art Wall Chair, Mary Randolph, Frank Halden, Ruth Giumarro, Project Chair, Maria Bulson, Barbara Lobdell, Sherry Newman, Elizabeth Frey-Thomas, Donna Heinz around “The Green Man.”

Robin Roraback

In honor of National Quilt Day, a tradition established in 1991, Hunt Library’s second annual quilt show, “Quilts of Many Colors,” will open Saturday, March 21, with a reception from 5 to 7 p.m. The quilts, made by members of the Hunt Library Quilters, will be displayed through April 17. All quilts will be for sale, and a portion of each sale goes to the library.

At the center of the exhibit is a quilt the Hunt Library Quilters collaborated on called the “Quilt of Many Colors,” inspired by Dolly Parton’s song”Coat of Many Colors.” Each member of the Hunt Library Quilters made two to four 10-inch squares for the twin-size quilt, with Gail Allyn embroidering “The Green Man” for the center square. The Green Man, a symbol of rebirth, is also a symbol of the library, seen carved in stone at the library’s entrance. One hundred percent of the sale of this quilt benefits the library.

Keep ReadingShow less
google preferred source

Want more of our stories on Google? Click here to make us a Preferred Source.

google preferred source

Want more of our stories on Google? Click here to make us a Preferred Source.