Easter


Bill Schmick
It has been ten years since Brexit took center stage in the politics of the Western world. The populist furor of an unhappy electorate triggered Great Britain’s exit from the European Union. How has that worked out for the Brits?
The populist rhetoric of a “Global Britain,” their answer to MAGA, was supposed to secure their borders by reducing immigration. Bureaucracy would be jettisoned; regulations and the budget would finally be restored after 14 years of Conservative Party mismanagement.
It would be the first populism-led attempt to overhaul one of the world’s oldest and wealthiest democracies. A decade later, it appears the nation is up to its ears in chaos. Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigned this month after serving less than two years despite a landslide Labor Party victory. He was supposed to save the country from years of successive Conservative Party prime ministers.
Instead, the country is struggling with low growth, higher inflation, faltering public services and an electorate that is every bit as angry and partisan as our own. Over the past decade, the country has had six prime ministers. David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak and now Keir Starmer are some of the names you may recognize. Brexit itself, scandal, market panic, immigration, and electoral rejection are just some of the factors that have sunk Britain’s leaders.
Back when, many economists were predicting an immediate recession if the country left the EU. It didn’t happen. What happened was that, over time, the British economy grew far less than it might have if it had stayed in the trade bloc. At the same time, business investment and productivity slumped as trade suffered. The typical family is worse off by thousands of pounds per year.
The pound dripped sharply after the Brexit vote, collapsing by 10%, the largest one-day drop in its history. That triggered a sharp increase in import prices, leading to an inflation shock that affected everyone across the board. The exit from the EU also involved erecting trade barriers that hit goods exports, since the EU was still the UK’s largest trading partner until last year.
The problem deepened since no one in government had a clear plan on what to do once the votes were counted. This led to years of political infighting and indecision. A weaker currency should have led to a surge in exports, but the uncertainty around Britain’s future clouded business judgment and investment. Investment is estimated to be almost 18% lower and productivity 4% lower than it would have been if a plan had been forthcoming.
The currency has never recovered.
The Office for Budget Responsibility, the independent watchdog of the UK Treasury, predicts that the UK is on track to suffer a 4% hit to national income over a 15-year period. A U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research report claims that the country’s GDP per head is between 6% and 8% lower than it would have been without Brexit.
As for unemployment, that fell dramatically in the initial Brexit days to the lowest rates since the 1970s. However, Covid took its toll on the labor market. The employment rate has never really recovered and remains between 3% and 4% below what it would be under a “remain” decision.
Can I extrapolate from the Uk’s experiences to the present immigration, trade, and tariff policies of the Trump administration? Not really, at least in the short-term. Equity markets in both countries recovered quickly after the referendum and Trump’s Liberation Day. Both countries’ economists initially predicted a steep decline in economic activity, and both were wrong. However, over the long term (a decade in the UK), large trade policy shocks seem to lead to lower investment, productivity, and employment growth as supply chains and trade patterns unravel.
Not surprisingly, public support for Brexit has fallen since the 52% versus 48% leave vote. Today a majority of voters (56%) would back rejoining the EU, according to YouGov, and 70% of Britons support a closer relationship with the EU. Support is strongest among Labour and Green Party voters and weakest among Nigel Farage’s right-wing, Reform UK party. Reform UK members oppose rejoining the bloc by 83%. That party has gained support as immigration and affordability have become major issues for voters.
The next candidate for PM, at least among the Labour Party, is Andy Burnham, a Manchester mayor with authentic populist appeal. In a special election, Burnham beat the Reform Party, which pundits believe will clear the way for him to head his party and win the PM title in Britain. The question is how long he can last, given the issues and the populism in his country and around the world.
Readers may recall several of my past columns in which I have explained the populist wave of discontent in the U.S. and worldwide. I wrote that, here at home, over a twenty-plus-year period, no single president survived to serve a second term, except Richard Nixon (who was impeached without completing his second term).
Populist voters have a very short fuse. Promises are made, but unless real progress is made within four years, the electorate has no patience for incumbents who can’t or won’t deliver. Overseas, beyond the UK, France, Germany, and Hungary, several other countries are facing populist challenges to incumbent parties.
We are seeing this here in the U.S. as we head into the midterms. Promises made but not kept have sent President Trump’s approval ratings into the 30s. Within the Democrat Party primaries, a war is already brewing between a growing populist wing of the party and the more conservative incumbents. Established Democrats, their critics say, offer failed forty-year-old policy solutions that have been rejected out of hand by younger generations of disenfranchised voters.
Bill Schmick is a founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc.
Nathan Miller
Local, county and state officials ready themselves for a ceremonial groundbreaking commemorating the start of construction on the planned pool and poolhouse at Eddie Collins Memorial Park in Millerton on Saturday, July 11.
MILLERTON — Community leaders and residents gathered Saturday, July 11, for a ceremonial groundbreaking celebrating the long-awaited pool and poolhouse planned for Eddie Collins Memorial Park, marking a major milestone in a project years in the making.
The ceremony, which followed the kickoff parade for Millerton’s week-long 175th anniversary celebration, drew local, county and state officials and residents to commemorate a project more than five years in the making to replace the park’s long-defunct pool.
Millerton Mayor Jenn Najdek served as host for the ceremony. She led remarks by recounting the years-long saga that led up to Saturday’s groundbreaking.
Following Najdek were addresses from North East Town Supervisor Chris Kennan, Dutchess County Legislator Chris Drago, New York State Assemblywoman Didi Barrett, New York State Senator Michelle Hinchey and Robert Rodriguez, president of Dormitory Authority of the State of New York — a state agency which assists municipalities across New York with project funding and construction.

The groundbreaking on Saturday was preceded by a private party at the park on Thursday, July 9, for donors and volunteers who have assisted in bringing a multi-stage renovation of the park’s facilities to fruition.
That gathering heard an address from lifelong Millerton resident Stephen Waite, whose advocacy has spearheaded the work to revitalize Eddie Collins Memorial Park for nearly 10 years.
He recounted his history with the park, starting as a kid when the original pool provided an opportunity to learn to swim and socialize with friends.
“I’ve known this park in so many different ways,” Waite said. “As a child, and now as an adult watching my nieces and nephews enjoy it.”

Waite also urged guests at Thursday’s reception to support the pool and the park’s ongoing revitalization by contributing to an endowment fund. He said the fund would provide long-term financial support for Eddie Collins Memorial Park, helping cover maintenance of the new pool and the sports facilities installed during the project’s first phase.
The park’s revitalization committee has raised $1.7 million toward the endowment fund. Waite said organizers have set an overall fundraising goal of $3 million. The fund will be managed by Berkshire Taconic Community Foundation, a nonprofit that helps organizations and municipalities establish endowments to provide long-term financial support.
Construction is scheduled to begin in August, with the pool expected to open in August 2027.
The pool and poolhouse will feature a 75-foot short course olympic pool, with a ramped shallow section allowing people of all ages and abilities to take advantage of the water. Included in the plans is a poolhouse, set to feature a kitchen that will be available for events, a community gathering space indoors, and a patio surrounding the inground pool.
Efforts to revitalize the park kicked off nearly 10 years ago when Waite and a band of local volunteers started conceptualizing new sports facilities, a larger playground and a replacement for the defunct pool. Construction on phase one of the park project — which included improving the soccer field, revamping the baseball field, new basketball courts and the expanded playground — wrapped up in 2022. Phase two comprises the new pool and poolhouse. There are currently no future phases planned.


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Lucia Iandolo
Dover-based developers Chippawalla Properties Inc. are proposing a new inn and event space on Lake Ellis Road.
DOVER PLAINS — A proposal to convert a lakeside residence into the Lake Ellis Country Inn will move to another public hearing on Thursday, July 24, at Dover Town Hall as the Planning Board continues reviewing the project.
The Lake Ellis Country Inn is proposed for a property on Lake Ellis that is currently used as a private residence. Rennia Engineering Design, PLLC, has proposed converting the property into a lodging facility with 18 guest rooms spread between the main lake house and the lake house annex.
The Lake Ellis Country Inn will be the first new Inn to open in Dover Plains since the restoration and re-opening of the Old Drovers Inn in 2014. The Old Drovers Inn has a rich history dating back to 1750 and serves as a historic landmark as well as a bed and breakfast. The Preston Barn was added to the property in 2017 and serves as a space to host large events in the community.
Similar to the Old Drovers Inn, The Lake Ellis Country Inn has deep historical roots linked to the town of Dover. According to the Dutchess County Historic Resource Survey, the site has existed since the 1850’s and was used as a summer camp before being sold and turned into private residential property by the late 1980s, according to Planning Board application documents.
The land is owned by Chippawalla Properties Inc., an entity that is planning the project in collaboration with Rennia Engineering Design PLLC. The Inn is intended to be used for events such as weddings, vacations, retreats and conferences, and will provide access to outdoor activities like hiking and fishing.
Peter Sander, senior planner for Rennia Engineering Design, shared updates from the fire department and the highway superintendent at the July 6 meeting. The fire department approved the current structure layout, and the highway superintendent confirmed that there were no issues with the existing driveway or approach leading to the site.
Sander voiced that he received a letter from the JHK Hose Co., and they will be meeting to address whether the roadways and pathways to the site are adequate. There are still discussions about the number of events that can be held per year, and how many guests are permitted on the property for events.
During the meeting, Rennia Engineering Design was urged to consider the planning board’s comments, including how many events would be held throughout the calendar year, how to alert neighbors to those events and parking near the site. The planning board requested an extension of the deadline, and member Villano moved to extend the project until July 24.
Leila Hawken
AMENIA — The Planning Board took another step toward completing New York’s State Environmental Quality Review for the proposed Cascade Creek affordable housing development on July 8, receiving updates on traffic, fire protection, open space and stormwater management.
The proposal calls for 26 affordable single-family homes on a site along Route 22 and Old North Road. Once the environmental review is complete, the project can move to site plan review, where developers will present detailed engineering and design plans.
For now, applicants are still awaiting final approval for the land subdivision plans, a process that has carried on since Poughkeepsie-based developers Hudson River Housing submitted its first official application in November 2024. This year, board members and representatives of the developer have been going back and forth over several details of the plan, shoring up concerns and adjusting plans as necessary.
Peter Sander, Senior Planner at Rennia Engineering, reported that the state Department of Transportation had not found a need for a traffic light at the planned entrance to the site off of Route 22, nor would a left-turn lane be needed. Plans describe creating a four-way intersection where Old North Road meets Route 44 near Ritchie’s Amenia Deli.
To allay fears about firefighting, Sander said that the developer will install home sprinkler systems in each home. The developer has also reconfigured the house lots so that 59% of the property will be conserved as open space. Each house lot will have a tree and the number of lots will be reduced from 28 to 26, Sander said.
Sander reported that the developer would soon meet with fire department officials to determine the volume of water needed to hold in storage within the development to draw upon in case of a home fire.
To answer concerns about storm water drainage and collection, Sander explained that vegetated ditches called swales will carry the storm water and direct it into collection basins.
Planning Board member Ken Topolsky thanked the developers for having listened to the neighbors’ concerns.
“We have a long way to go in the process,” Topolsky said. “It’s time to get into the substantive aspects. They have met all town code requirements.”
“We have checked the administrative boxes,” Planning Board member James Vitiello said, noting that the developer has modified the plan in the process.
Planning Board member James Walsh said that he would want to hear plans for water storage and the results of talks with the fire department officials.
“The fire department said they favor sprinklers,” Sander said.
Board attorney Victoria Polidoro indicated that the SEQR process needs to be completed and that she would prepare a resolution to be considered at the next Planning Board meeting.
Topolsky noted that once the developer furnishes specific design details during the site plan process, additional public hearings will be scheduled.
Sophie Gardiner
STANFORD — A Repair Cafe will bring experienced fixers to the Stanford Free Library on July 18, offering free repairs for items ranging from lamps to jewelry to electronics.
The Repair Cafe is set for 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. in the community room in the Stanford Free Library on Route 82.
Suzie Fromer, coordinator of the Repair Cafe Hudson Valley network, said the events serve two purposes: keeping usable items out of landfills, and helping people rediscover the value of what they already own.
“On the one hand, yes we want to save things from the landfill and remind people that they can fix things instead of just tossing them,” Fromer said. “But at this point, people are also really understanding the value of things and the importance of saving money instead of buying something new.”
Just as central to the mission, Fromer said, is building community. Rather than the event being a drop-off service, repair cafes are a social space where attendees sit alongside volunteers and neighbors as they learn to tinker with their broken items.
Volunteer repair coaches at the event are equipped to provide services on a range of items, such as fixing small broken appliances, sewing clothing and textile repairs, sharpening dull tools and rewiring lamps.
For Riva Weinstein, a volunteer who repairs jewelry at the cafes, fixing something doesn’t necessarily mean restoring it to its original form.
“What does fixing something mean? It doesn’t necessarily mean making it what it was,” Weinstein said. “It sometimes means opening yourself to the idea of creating something else out of it.”
That openness, Fromer said, is where the real reward lies. She recalled repairing jewelry for people who no longer had the fine motor skills or close vision to do it themselves, including one woman with arthritis whose bracelet had sat broken on a table for two or three years.
After Fromer had fit the bracelet’s clasp with a magnet, so the woman could fasten it herself, the woman cried.
“What we all do is easy for us,” Fromer said. “But, when I look around the room, what everyone else is doing isn’t easy for me. It’s an amazing talent pool.”

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